December is traditionally our slowest month. Who wants to get a divorce over the holidays?

This year, oddly, it was our biggest month of the year. I have no idea why. We had people lined up to pay on Christmas Eve.

Predicting the December Effect

The impact of December varies from firm to firm based on the billing methodology and timing. In our firm, we charge fixed fees. That means that a slow month, like December, affects our revenue immediately. We have fewer calls, fewer consultations, and fewer retainers, so our revenue is lower.

In hourly billing firms, it takes longer for December to hit the profit and loss statement. Many of these firms feel the impact of December when they total up the hours billed and transfer funds from trust on January 2.

I’ve studied December in an effort to make it more predictable. This year, as usual, I assumed December would be lower than a typical month. I’ve concluded, based on 23 years of Decembers, that we’d be down at least 20 percent. I knew it wouldn’t be exactly 20 percent. In fact, I knew that revenues could even go up, but that wasn’t likely.

Shaping Plans Based on Our Predictions

In preparation for the slow month, we carefully set aside a reserve fund and added to it as each month passed. We were ready for Armageddon. Then, incredibly oddly, the revenue went up, not down. I have no idea what happened. I’m not complaining, but it’s confusing.

I wish I could predict the revenue and count on those predictions working out as planned. I can’t. Predicting is good, and preparing for shortfalls makes sense, but having things turn out exactly as planned is never going to happen.